FPL Gameweek 19 Preview: Free Risk Captaincy, Final Chip Week, and Avoiding the Rotation Trap
- Sam
- Dec 30, 2025
- 3 min read
Gameweek 19 is a pivot week.
Not because of chaos but because of opportunity. This is the final week of the first half of the season, chips are expiring, fixture runs are turning, and for once the data points clearly toward a differential decision that doesn’t increase downside.
That combination is rare. And when it appears, you take it.
Captaincy: Cunha Is the Definition of “Free Risk”
This week’s standout captain is Matheus Cunha (£8.1m).
In FPL analytics, we call this setup “free risk”:
Cunha has higher expected points than the popular option
AND he will be massively under-captained
Meaning you gain upside without sacrificing baseline expectation
Most managers will default to Haaland. That’s understandable but it’s also exactly why Cunha works so well here. You’re not gambling. You’re backing the higher xPoints and gaining rank leverage, which is the perfect combo.
If you’re serious about climbing, this is one of the cleanest differential captaincies of the season.
Final Call: Use Your First-Half Chips or Lose Them
This is the last week to use any chips allocated to the first half of the season.
If you still have chips unused, you must deploy them in GW19 or they’re gone.
This isn’t a “wait and see” moment. Even a sub-optimal chip play is better than losing the chip entirely. If your team is even remotely set up for it, now is the time to act.
Proof of Edge: Kevin Schade (£7.0m)
It’s worth calling this out explicitly.
2 weeks ago, the algorithm flagged Kevin Schade as an underrated transfer target.
Result: 20 points.
This isn’t about victory laps, it’s about process. Identifying low-owned players with strong roles before the points land is where long-term rank gains come from. GW19 continues to offer those same opportunities if you’re willing to trust the data over the crowd.
Fixture Swing: Newcastle Assets Back in Play
Newcastle’s excellent fixture run starts now, and the pricing on their assets makes them particularly attractive.
Two standouts:
Lewis Hall (£5.2m) Strong value, growing role, and fits perfectly as a defender you can start or rotate.
Anthony Gordon (£7.4m) Direct, involved, and well-priced for his expected output over the coming weeks.
These are not short-term punts, they’re structural improvements aligned with fixtures.
Liverpool Buy: Szoboszlai Back on the Menu
After serving his suspension, Dominik Szoboszlai is once again a strong buy.
With minutes security restored and Liverpool’s attack settling into a clearer shape, Szoboszlai offers a balance of:
Role security
Attacking involvement
Mid-range pricing flexibility
He’s not flashy but he rates consistently well in the projections.
Popular Buy Warning: Rayan Cherki Is a Trap
One of the biggest red flags this week is Rayan Cherki, currently the second most-bought player.
Yes, he’s a fantastic asset when on the pitch. The problem is xMins.
We know Pep rotates. Jérémy Doku is close to returning. That combination makes Cherki a serious minutes risk.
High xPoints with low xMins is not value, it’s volatility. This is a classic example of a player who looks great in highlights but fails when you model expected minutes properly.
Teams to Exit: Bournemouth Assets
Bournemouth are out of form and face a brutal upcoming fixture run.
The algorithm is already looking to move managers on from assets like:
Antoine Semenyo
Marcos Senesi
Holding through this run is a classic case of hoping rather than planning. There are better uses of budget and squad slots elsewhere.
Want This Applied to Your Team?
This article covers general strategy.The Algorithm runs your exact squad and sends you:
Personalised transfers
Captain & vice-captain
Bench order
Chip guidance (especially important this week)
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